La campagne de Rudy Giuliani

A la peine lors des deux premiers tests, Rudy Giuliani, qui ne s'y était pas engagé outre mesure, compte sur un succès en Floride pour lancer véritablement sa campagne. Etat des lieux par le Los Angeles Times.

Rudolph W. Giuliani, once the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, said Friday that some of his staffers had started forgoing their salaries to ease the strain on the campaign's budget.

Giuliani told reporters at an appearance in Florida that the aides volunteered to defer their pay "to stretch the dollars even further." The former New York mayor has $7 million in hand to spend in upcoming primaries -- enough, his campaign said, to compete through the crucial Super Tuesday contests in more than 20 states, including California, Feb. 5.

Still, many political observers said the news signaled a surprising cash squeeze in a campaign that was thought to be managing its finances well. It also underscored Giuliani's sharp decline in recent weeks from front-runner to struggling contender, they said, while renewing questions about the wisdom of his decision to essentially take a pass on the earliest contests. The candidate has staked his prospects on winning in Florida on Jan. 29.

"He's in a tough spot," said John J. Pitney Jr., a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College and a former Republican National Committee staffer. "Up to now, Giuliani's fundraising appeared to be a major advantage, but . . . he's probably burned through a lot of money."

Campaign officials said that the budget situation dovetailed with their strategy of betting heavily on Florida and of using momentum from a primary victory here to galvanize fresh fundraising and support.

Giuliani, speaking to reporters after a stop at a school in the southern Florida community of Coral Gables, playfully said his campaign was using "a strategy of lulling your opponents into a false sense of security."

"Everyone has their own strategy," he said. "We think this is the best strategy, given our assets."

Anne Dunsmore, who until recently was Giuliani's deputy chief of staff overseeing fundraising, called it "standard fare" for senior campaign aides to defer pay in the heat of a contest. "On Feb. 10, if you had $5 million in the bank and you lost by 2 or 3 points, you'd be an idiot," she said.

Scott Klug, a former four-term Republican congressman who is a co-chairman for the Giuliani campaign in Wisconsin, said: "I don't think anybody is cash-flush at this point." He noted that even the fundraising leader among the GOP candidates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, suspended TV advertising in South Carolina and Florida on Wednesday in a money-saving move.

"Unfortunately, in politics, people like front-runners," Klug said, adding that if Giuliani wins in Florida, "the cash will come."

However, Giuliani's campaign strategy has looked questionable in recent weeks.

He has been overtaken alternately in national polls by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. John McCain of Arizona. A CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday showed Giuliani behind both rivals. In Florida, Giuliani's once-substantial edge is gone.

In Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, Giuliani -- who spent more than 40 days campaigning in the state -- finished fourth. Meanwhile, he has moved his small professional staffs out of Michigan and South Carolina, where GOP primaries will be held next week, to build his operation and boost his chances in Florida.

"If John McCain wins both Michigan and South Carolina, then Giuliani has a huge problem because they're competing for the same votes," Pitney said. "However, if McCain falls short, then Giuliani still has a big opening."

Giuliani started the campaign with the goal of raising more than $100 million in 2007, but he didn't come close. By the end of the third quarter, he brought in $44.3 million, with $16.6 million in the bank.

Still, that placed him second to Romney among Republicans -- albeit far short of the $100 million-plus raised by Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).

Until Friday, "the assumption has been that Giuliani is the only Republican candidate besides Romney who had the financial resources to campaign all the way through," said Dan Schnur, a Republican analyst.

The amount Giuliani raised in the final quarter won't be known until Jan. 31, when candidates must file statements with the Federal Election Commission. According to Giuliani's campaign, he had $12.7 million in the bank as of Dec. 31, although under federal rules, only $7 million of that would be available for use in the primaries. The remainder has been earmarked for the general election.

Klug, the Wisconsin co-chairman, said Giuliani was upbeat in a Wednesday conference call with state campaign officials. The call, he said, "was largely to tell folks: 'We know this is a risky strategy. But so far it's played out exactly the way we wanted it to, with this very muddied picture on the Republican side.' "

The nation's biggest and most delegate-rich states have yet to vote. "So what's happened until this point has largely been a beauty contest," Klug said.

"Talk to me after Florida and, if he has lost, we'd have something to talk about," said Giuliani donor John Herrington, who was Energy secretary under President Reagan. He said his candidate was "far from out of money."

"I am still of the belief that Rudy is highly viable," said Herrington, who has raised more than $100,000 for the former New York mayor. Maintaining Giuliani can win in California, New York, Florida and Texas, Herrington said: "You put those states together and you're a player. . . . I think Rudy is the last guy standing."

A campaign spokeswoman declined to indicate how long the roughly dozen staffers would forgo their paychecks.

One key factor for the Giuliani campaign is how much money he has left to finance advertising in markets such as Florida and California, where the spending can easily run $2.5 million a week. Many analysts speculated that the campaign already has paid for ample advertising, safeguarding its ability to make a strong push.

Giuliani aides declined to discuss the details of their media buys.

Le New Hampshire, victoire de "revenants"

Le New Hampshire fut riche en surprise pour peu que l'on place quelques jours en arrière. Qu'il s'agisse de Hillary Clinton ou de John McCain, ils avaient, à leur manière, pris un train de retard dans la course à l'investiture. USA Today fait le point du côté républicain.

The chant at John McCain's election night headquarters said it all: "Mac Is Back! Mac Is Back! Mac Is Back!"

Left for dead after a staff shake-up in the summer, McCain retook New Hampshire with tactics he used to beat George W. Bush here eight years ago — re-emerging as a major contender for the Republican nomination.

"Republicans will look around and realize he is the best bet to beat the Democratic nominee," McCain aide Mark McKinnon said.

The Vietnam POW re-boarded his "Straight Talk Express" and banked heavily on the independent-minded voters of New Hampshire to reinvigorate a campaign crippled by a lack of campaign funds. He even guaranteed a victory here as the primary neared.

By contrast, Mitt Romney, the ex-governor of neighboring Massachusetts who stressed his business experience, downplayed expectations hours before the polls closed.

"I know that at the end of the night, almost certainly, I will have received more votes for president than anyone else on the Republican side," added Romney, who finished second in Iowa but took the Wyoming caucuses on Saturday.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who beat Romney in Iowa, was battling for third place in New Hampshire along with Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul.

McCain won New Hampshire by reviving echoes of his 2000 campaign with a "Mac is back" tour aboard the "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus and more than 100 town hall meetings that often featured colorful exchanges. When an undecided voter told him over the weekend he was in political "purgatory," McCain said: "It's a step up from where I was last summer."

The Arizonan again sought support from political independents who are eligible to vote in either primary in New Hampshire.

In this campaign, however, McCain spent more time discussing his experiences as a Vietnam prisoner of war. He also emphasized his Senate work on national security issues, particularly the Iraq war. He voiced support for last year's troop increase in Iraq, and took credit for influencing that strategy.

Susan Larivee, 40, an accounting assistant from Nashua, said she recently decided on McCain, calling his military experience "very important."

"He has integrity," Larivee said. "I think he's less of a politician."

The Associated Press and the television networks conducted surveys of voters as they left polling places that showed McCain won among Republican voters who regard the war as their top issue and among those who disapproved of the war.

McCain topped Romney and the rest of the Republican field among both men and women; he also prevailed among most age groups, though Romney did best among voters 65 and older. McCain also won among most of the income categories, except for Romney's edge among voters who said they make $150,000-$199,999 a year.

Romney tried to use McCain's experience against him, calling the veteran senator a Washington insider who is too much a part of a "broken" political system.

Romney, a former venture capitalist and Olympics organizer, said his business background would help him address such challenges as health care, education and developing sources of energy.

The survey of voters showed that Romney won easily among those whose major issue was illegal immigration, an issue on which he accused McCain of favoring an "amnesty" policy.

Huckabee, the winner in Iowa, in early returns was on pace to finish a distant third in New Hampshire.

Senior adviser Charmaine Yoest said Huckabee's showings in New Hampshire and Michigan would demonstrate the national appeal of the former Arkansas governor. "We think the polling data that shows our lead widening in South Carolina speaks pretty clearly about our chances there," she added.

Giuliani, a former New York City mayor, is looking ahead to the Florida primary on Jan. 29, and to New York, California and other big states a week later.

"This is just the beginning," Giuliani said at his campaign headquarters in Manchester shortly after McCain was declared the winner. "Think of it as a kickoff. This is the kickoff of what's going to be a very long and very tough game."

Giuliani expressed confidence that he would prevail in the fight for the nomination. "Maybe we've lulled our opponents into a false sense of confidence now," he said.

Like Huckabee, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson is aiming at South Carolina. "It's all been about getting to South Carolina and then going from there," Thompson said on CNN, adding that on Feb. 5, "there are a lot of Southern, Western states" that are voting.

Romney's personal wealth gives him a financial edge over his opponents. He has spent $24.1 million on television advertising since February, according to Evan Tracey of TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG. He is now on the air in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida.

McCain spent the second-highest amount among Republicans, $4.1 million. He is now running ads in Michigan and South Carolina.

Among the other candidates and their spending: Giuliani ($3.1 million), Huckabee ($2.1 million), Paul ($2.1 million), and Thompson ($2 million).